Perhaps trying to deflect people’s attention… Bala tried to see the bright side and noted that no one was hurt… nevermind the million dollars worth of damages.

Also, he wants you and I to tell him where got floods (I thought they have some sms system?)

Btw, managed to see the funny side of things…

Should’ve bought a BMW

Take for example flood warning…

You can even follow the flash flood warning on twitter somemore…

The public is advised to obtain the latest weather reports, including heavy rain warnings, by tuning in to radio broadcasts, calling NEA’s weather forecast hotline at 6542-7788.

They can follow @NEAsg on Twitter, visit www.nea.gov.sg or access the mobile weather service, Weather@SG http://weather.nea.gov.sg.

The public can also call PUB’s 24-hour Call Centre at 1800-284 6600 to report obstructions in drains or to check the flood situation.

For information on managing flash floods and accessing information on the water level in key canals and drains, refer to http://www.pub.gov.sg/managingflashfloods.

I really wonder what are you supposed to do now that you have been warned and informed?

Wear swimming trunks instead of underwear?

Start filling up sand bags?

Carry your furniture from your first floor living room up into your second floor bedrooms?

Park your car at nearby HDB multi-storey carpark? (Hey, this is one thing you CAN do actually)

Curious, I visited the link given above and got to PUB’s site.

Some of the good stuff I found on the site include the following writeup:

As a tropical island, Singapore is naturally prone to intense storms. We generally get an annual rainfall of about 2,400mm.

Through concerted effort and careful land development planning, PUB has reduced Singapore’s flood prone areas from 3,200 ha in the 1970s to the current 62 ha.

Since young, when you study geography, you have always had Singapore land size expressed using square kilometers, I wonder how come PUB not yet progress to using SI units. Anyway, just for comparison, Singapore Botanic Gardens is also about 62 hectares.

The site also explained how PUB plan the type of drains and canals to construct based on past rainfall, land type and some magic formula… so this means they not suka suka anyhow build one.

There was this photo showing a damn huge longkang which, one look you know, will never overflow one.

Those road side longkang, that overflows whenever it rains, are not featured.

There was also a map which show the flood prone areas where all the must-wear-boots areas are color in blue.

This site also suggests for commercial buildings owners to install flood gates shown below.

Seemed like the plan is for all buildings to have that, so that whenever it floods, everyone can raise their flood gates so that walk ways and roads can become temporary drains.

If you only a poor shop house / residential owner leh? PUB has this advice for you.

Apart from storing belongings on high levels, home-owners in the low-laying areas can look into having flood boards or sand bags on standby, with the help of PUB. These items can help to prevent floodwaters from entering their houses during flash floods.

There’s a whole section on ‘Be Prepared’ where gems such as

Do not walk through moving water. 15cm of moving water can make you fall. If you have to walk in water, walk where the water is not moving. Use a stick to check the firmness of the ground in front of you.

and

Do not touch electrical equipment if you are wet or standing in water.

If you live in low-rise housing, secure your home/shop/office. Move essential items to an upper floor.

Are provided. Hey, so really, you should carry your TV set upstairs when you know flood is coming, but if already flooded liao, then for goodness sake don’t touch the TV.

Finally, PUB showed you how you can store items ‘at higher levels’

Good advice indeed.

Feb 16, 2011
Make property tax more equitable

ACCORDING to Saturday’s report (“Housing affordability of key concern”), the general sentiment is that the Government would be dishing out property, utility and service and conservancy rebates, upgrading old estates to increase the supply of HDB flats and providing larger housing grants for lower-income households in this year’s Budget.

While these measures would be welcomed, they are just stop-gap measures and do not address the root of the problem: land scarcity in Singapore.

Land scarcity inevitably leads to high property prices as the supply of properties is insufficient to meet demand. Living in landed property is definitely a luxury and to ensure efficient and equitable allocation of resources, luxuries should be priced accordingly to reflect their scarcity. The current property tax policy in Singapore does not adhere to this principle of efficient allocation.

Currently, properties are taxed based on their annual value, which is the estimated amount of rental the properties would fetch if they were to be rented out. At first glance, one might be convinced that the landed property owner is paying a higher property tax and is thus paying a fair price for his luxury. However, the current tax rates fail to separate the concept of property from land.

Take, for example, a bungalow that sits on a 10,000 sq m plot of land could accommodate 40 three-room flats. Thus we can say that for the same size of land, HDB flat dwellers collectively pay a higher amount of tax than a landed property dweller.

Furthermore, the tax places a bigger financial burden on the lower-income group.

A property tax reform where the notions of land and property are separated is due. Property owners should still be taxed based on the estimated rental revenue, but at a lower rate. The balance should come from a land tax, where property owners are taxed based on the size of the plot they occupy and also the share of the plot which they occupy. Thus, the landed property owner would pay tax for the whole of his bungalow, while an HDB flat dweller living in a 20-storey block would pay 1/20 of the land tax. This new tax regime would be more equitable.

Goh Ching Soon

The first letter, written by Mr. Goh Chin Soon on 16 Feb presented a congent argument on why the current method used to determine property taxes is inappropriate.

His argument is as follows:

1. Singapore faces the problem of land scarcity
2. Land scarcity leads to higher property prices
3. Various mechanisms and policies are used by the garmen to help moderate high prices as well as address land scarcity.
4. Property taxation should also be one of these mechanisms

So far so good? Here’s the good part, pay attention now.

Mr. Goh further argues that since property taxation should be one of the several mechanism used to address the larger problem of land scarcity… the current method of deriving it is flawed. He argues that

1. Given Singapore have the problem of land scarcity.
2. Landed property makes less efficient use of land
3. Landed property owner should pay more in terms of property tax (compared to people staying in flats / condo)
4. The current method of deriving property is based on annual value
5. Annual value does not take into consideration land size of the property, instead it is based upon prevailing rental yields
6. Rental yields does not differ significantly enough to reflect the land-use efficiency differences between landed properties and high-rise properties
7. Owners of properties that uses land less efficiently should be taxed more, since land is scarce.

Mr. Goh ended the letter giving a rather clear-cut example where a owner of bungalow would pay less property tax compared to that paid by HDB dwellers collectively occupying the same size plot of land. Key point of this illustration being that both properties take up the same amount of land, but one houses significantly lesser households / people.

Finally, he proposed that property taxes be separated into land and property tax.

Two days later, this piece of joke appeared in the very same forum.

Feb 18, 2011
Wrong to base property tax on land size

MR GOH Ching Soon pointed out that landed property should be taxed according to the land area that the property occupied (“Make property tax more equitable”; Wednesday).

He gave an example of a bungalow that sits on a 10,000 sq m plot of land versus 40 three-room flats in the same plot area and concluded that the 40 three-room flat dwellers collectively pay a higher amount of tax than a landed property dweller.

However, properties are taxed based on their annual value, which is the estimated amount of rental they would fetch if they were to be rented out. How much rental a property can command depends on many factors, and size is just one of them.

A check on some property websites indicates that the estimated rental for bungalows of land areas up to 10,000 sq m is in the region of $30,000. The median rents of a three-room HDB flat in the fourth quarter of last year was $1,700, which means 40 flats would fetch $68,000 collectively in rental.

Clearly, it is not equitable to peg property tax according to land size.

Tan Yong Sang

It is a good thing the forum page are place where they are, else I would have had wiped my ass with it and maybe in the process, choked my toilet while flushing.

This letter, written by a Mr. Tan, argued that the previous writer’s call was flawed, he even (according to him) researched property rental prices online to support his claim.

Let’s see how he had presented his case.

1. Property tax is based on annual value, which is based on rental yield
2. Rental depends on several factors, property size is just one of them
3. Based on actual rental prices which he found online and using Mr. Goh’s bungalow vs 40 HDB illustration, he found that the rental yield of the bungalow would be $30,000, while the HDB dwellers would have a collective yield of $68,000
4. Since the HDB dwellers would have collected a higher rents, they ought to be taxed more (collectively) compared to the bungalow owner
5. Therefore, pegging property tax to land size is a dumb idea

Where had Mr. Tan gone wrong?

First, he made the mistake that tax could only be peg to land size or rental yield, and not both, like what Mr. Goh had suggested. Perhaps he had be brainwashed by a certain old man, who’s quite fond of citing either / or scenarios.

Second, to support his case, he used the VERY same mechanism that Mr. Goh claimed is flawed, to illustrate why.

Lastly, he totally missed the point on why inefficient users of land ought to be taxed more. To him, taxation should be based on collection. Because the 40 HDB dwellers would have collected more rental, they ought to pay higher property tax (collectively) compared to the bungalow owner.

Mr. Tan had overlooked the key operator in his argument, that at present, property tax is derived from what property owner would have gotten if they had rented out their property. While rent collection and annual value is a mere projection, what’s real is the land use, the land had indeed been taken up by the property.

Land scarcity is a reality, and I fully support taxing people who live in big bungalows much much more. With high-rise getting higher each day, I wonder if Mr. Goh’s illustration of 40 HDB vs 1 bungalow is too modest an estimate.

I must admit, I never paid attention to such things before. So this is the first time I noticed that CPF rates are computed / derived from major local banks’ 3-months interest rates.

The computed CPF interest rate derived from the major local banks’ interest rates from Nov 1 2010 to Jan 31 2011, worked out to be 0.38 per cent per annum. However, the higher rate of 2.50 per cent will be paid as the CPF Act provides for a minimum CPF interest rate of 2.50 per cent per annum.

The para above gave me the impression that the CPF board, which locks in your money for a long, long, long time, somehow found it appropriate to derive its interest based on 3-month interest rates of local banks. I also had the impression that we ought to be very thankful that despite the derived low interest rate of 0.38%, the garment had decided to give 2.5%.

Perhaps the huge difference between the derived interests and assigned interest is an indication that there are some flaws in how the interest rate is derived in the first place, is the garmen pegging the computation to something realistic and comparable? By the way, last years inflation is 2.8%, which means yeah, even with the 2.5% interest, you still end up losing your savings.

And guess what… this year’s inflation is projected to be 3-4%.

Cheers!

So what other goodies are in store for voters?

Well, if you’re staying in Aljunied GRC, Hougang, East Coast, Jurong Lake or Jalan Besar… you can look forward to face lifts in your estate.

Meanwhile, participants are finding the perfect spot to place their electoral goal posts.

Stay tuned for more updates.

Update 12 Jan.

More good news for public-transport-taking lesser mortals.

And for older lesser mortals as well…

Meanwhile…

‘As a website that provides coverage and analysis of political issues, TOC has the potential to influence the opinions of their readership and shape political outcomes in Singapore. It has been gazetted to ensure that it is not funded by foreign elements or sources.’

Former Nominated MP Siew Kum Hong summed up the move really well, saying:

‘When the elections come, liberalisation goes.’

Stay tune…

‘The first misconception is that somehow there are five million people and that’s putting pressure on all of us. It doesn’t.’

Of the five million, 3.2 million are citizens and roughly 500,000 are permanent residents (PRs). The remaining 1.3 million are here on temporary work permits and they ‘impose no burden’ on the public housing system, said Mr Shanmugam, who is also the Second Home Affairs Minister.

The operative word of Shanmugam’s claim was ‘public’ (aka HDB flats), his main contention was, since the large bulk of foreigners are work permit holders who cannot buy HDB flat (new or resale), and that PR only form a small portion of foreigners, they cannot possibly drive up prices of public housing. Talk about over-simplifying matters.

Shortly after his failed attempt to convince the masses, garmen announced new measures to curb rising prices of private housing market.

First, anyone who sells a property within a year of buying it will have to pay stamp duty of around 3 per cent….

Second, lending institutions will now be allowed to lend only up to 80 per cent of the purchase price, not 90 per cent.

Senior Minister of State for National Development Grace Fu emphasised that the Government had acted to prevent a “speculative bubble from forming.”

Aside from our dear Law Minister, everyone else knows that public housing sentiments follows the sentiments of private housing rather closely. So it was no surprise that 2 days later, it was announced that garmen will introduce measures for public housing market as well.

Minister for National Development Mah Bow Tan said: ‘We are looking at something. I’ve asked HDB to look at some of the activity that is going on in the market.’

At almost the same time, PM urged Singaporeans not to play play in the housing market and that ‘homes are for keeps’

‘Property is for people to buy to live in, not for speculating,’

Shortly after that, papers reported that garmen is watching the market.

and that no new measures will be introduce…. for now.

THE Government will not introduce more measures relating to the property market for now, but will monitor the market closely, said National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan

Meanwhile, demand continued to soared for public housing

The blistering demand for the developments… is being attributed to the escalating prices of resale flats, which set a fresh record in the last quarter of last year.

And prices for both private and public housing continued to go up…

In August, realizing that they can no longer sit on their hands… garmen announces fresh measures.

First, the seemingly unmovable HDB income-ceiling, which remained at $8000 per month since 1994, which survived various financial highs and lows, recessions and economic booms and inflation… will finally be raised.

PM Lee announced the increase during his national day rally, seemingly a measure to help the ‘sandwiched class’.

‘I think this group is quite anxious about falling in between, as they are not eligible for HDB and they can’t afford private property.. And because people are marrying a little bit later, so their incomes tend to be a little bit higher, so they worry that they will get promoted before they get settled. So we will do more to help them own their homes,’

Fact is, if you think about it, more people buying flats direct from HDB will mean less people buying resale and private, it is a move targeted at cooling the property prices.

Next came the public assurance that garmen will ensure adequate supply of HDB flats

Again, a move designed to cool buying frenzy that’s driving up prices.

And finally… to top it off, a ‘lightning strike’ change in policy.

Garmen announced the extension of minimum occupancy period (MOP) for non-subsidized HDB flats (aka resale flats) and also the restriction of dual ownership during the MOP.

Apart from the longer MOP for resale and subletting of flat to five years, the HDB also announced on Monday morning that buyers of non-subsidised flats will be disallowed from concurrently owning both an HDB flat and a private residential property within the MOP.

Private property owners who buy a non-subsidised HDB flat must now dispose of their private residential property within six months from the date of flat purchase.

HDB statement also claimed that the change will “ensure equitable treatment for all HDB flat lessees during their MOP” because prior to rule change, buyers of subsidized HDB flats (those who bought direct from HDB) are not allowed to own private property during their MOP.

The press labeled the policy change a ‘cold shock for speculators’

MND Mah Bow Tan claimed:

‘We think that if we do nothing, there’s going to be a bubble’ and that the ‘calibrated’ steps will stabilise the private property market and ‘pre-empt’ it from overheating.

Having a good feeling about that latest measures…

MND Mah Bow Tan felt he needed to assure the masses that

‘Obviously the intention is not to crash the market, but at the same time, if we don’t rein in the market, and the bubble bursts then it will be even worst for everyone concerned, the economy as well as for individual buyers,’

Just in case this turned out to be another ‘stop at two’ type of policy that will later back-fire.

But his fears were unfounded.

Even the spirits were unable to curb home sales.

NEW private homes sales stayed fairly robust in August, despite the month coinciding with the traditionally inauspicious Hungry Ghost Festival.

Sure, one could argue that the figures reported were those that pre-date the cooling measures announced in August… but if hungry ghosts also cannot stop, you think a few policies can?

It is always good to prepare a turtle-shell carrier in times of needs… so in Oct, Mah Bow Tan reported that

So if there’s a bubble and if it burst, we know who to blame — ourselves.

SM Goh also weigh in on the issue

Once again, with the ‘we’re watching you’ message.

‘We periodically act pre-emptively to let some air out of property bubbles before they burst with a bang,’

Perhaps realizing that whacking the demand is not really working, garmen moved on to tackle the supply.

A subtle hint of a new policy was introduced.

PEOPLE intending to sell their Housing Board (HDB) flats from Nov 1 will have to observe a seven-day cooling-off period before the deal can proceed.

If the designated waiting time has not been met, the HDB will reject the resale application. The seven-day period starts from the time the resale checklist has been completed until the granting of the option to purchase.

Still the peasants don’t get the hint…

More ‘We’re watching You!’ from the big shots came

Until the big man also buey tahan… and stepped forward with the clearest message yet.

The year ended on a high….

with records being broken.

But I guess we could take some comfort in knowing that the fewer people from the sandwich class are pushing up HDB resale prices.

Enter 2011

The new year started with a bang.

But analysts are happy and proclaim the increase to be ‘stabilizing’.

The latest data brings the total rise in HDB resale flat prices for 2010 to about 13.3 per cent – a fresh record for prices.

However, the 2.4 per cent fourth quarter gain is the smallest quarterly rise since the second quarter of 2009.

The highest growth rate posted in a calendar year was in 2007 when resale flat prices shot up by 16.6 per cent.

Prices for private are on the rise as well…

Meanwhile, Garmen continue to make more flats available, in hope of quashing demand for resale / private

But new flats continued to be over-subscribed.

THE latest offering of build-to-order (BTO) flats in Punggol has been oversubscribed by more than six times, continuing a recent trend in the area.

If trends continue, maybe selling my flat for $1mil is not such a crazy thought after all… I will continue to update this post, check back often. Go!!!

Update: Feb 2011

[Ok, I fell ill and got busy, hence only updating now]

Property speculators got a rude shock on 14 Jan 2011.

Fresh measures were introduced overnight to curb the relentless rising property prices.

(New measures) include hiking seller’s stamp duty to a new maximum of 16 per cent, up from 3 per cent previously, and making it payable for up to four years from the date of purchase of a property.

Anyone with an existing home loan looking to buy a second property for investment will also now need to fork out more cash and Central Provident Fund savings.

That is because the loan limit for such properties is now 60 per cent of the property’s value, down from 70 per cent previously.

The measures take effect on Friday.

Thursday’s announcement marked the fourth time in less than two years that the Government has stepped in to cool the property market here.

SCORES of buyers have withdrawn offers or walked away from thousands of dollars of deposits as the shock of the tough cooling measures reverberated through the housing market on Friday.

Agents have also reported that their phones have been running hot with worried people wanting advice.

And property shares of companies like City Developments (CDL), Keppel Land and CapitaLand fell as well with investors bailing out of the sector.

But one group was smiling on Friday: First-time buyers, who are optimistic that prices will now fall enough to allow them to get onto the private property ladder.

I think the one smiling group may have smiled too soon… because according to MBT… the measure were meant to stabilize, not help lower prices.

So up-graders, like Mr Ken Kee, featured in the next report can keep on dreaming the Singapore dream.

While speculators like Ms Angela Hou (who look really hot in the photo) can kiss her deposit bye bye.

Meanwhile, MAS warn banks not to suka suka lend money to people to buy property.

Apparently, there’s a whole bunch of heros who are taking multiple loans and investing in property heavily. I hope they have fire-proof underwear.

It is not wonder they can take out multiple loans because of our open-wide policy when it comes to getting more people into the country. People come in, need place to stay mah… use rent to cover for loan repayment lor.

It is probably the same group of heroes that continue to keep private sales hot despite the fresh measures.

Meanwhile, garmen continue to increase supply for peasantville…

And also make is harder for non-traditional family nucleus to buy these property

Anyway… analysts reported that despite the fierce measures, impact will only be felt after Q1.

The take up rate for peasantville were not as high as the previous cases.

Only 2 times over-subscribed, unlike the 6 times over-subscription for Punggol Top-Ass.

This showing pales in comparison to a January BTO launch for Punggol Topaz that received six times more applicants than there were flats on offer, and a November launch in Yishun Greenwalk that was three times oversubscribed.

Industry watchers say the Housing and Development Board’s promise to put up as many as 22,000 new flats under the BTO scheme if demand is sustained, has made many buyers more selective about the BTO launches they apply for.

In other words, although people are willing to pay crazy money for a property, they are not crazy about those at ulu locations.

Jan private property was a 3-month low, but perhaps because people busy preparing for CNY. We will see in the next few months if this persists.

Meanwhile, some private company ranked Singapore as the 5th most expensive country in terms of rent.

It is no wonder every Tom, Dick and Harry also want to buy second property and rent to ang mohs.

The hardest working in the Jan – Feb period is probably HDB. Jan 18 announce want to review the little-known siblings buy HDB scheme, Feb 15 already gao-tim the review and announced that it will be scraped.

Senior Minister of State for National Development Grace Fu on Monday told Parliament that the Housing Board would discontinue the scheme with immediate effect as it “is no longer necessary”.

It was introduced in 1990 to enable unmarried Singaporean and PR siblings to buy an HDB flat. To qualify, their parents cannot own another HDB flat and must reside overseas.

“This was necessary then because the sublet market for HDB flats and rooms was limited, and there were few viable housing options for these siblings.”

Ms Fu also revealed that only about 300 such cases got the go-ahead each year. That is less than 1 per cent of total flat transactions.

Instead of allow this same group of people to buy flats, they now expect them to rent flats, isn’t this encouraging subletting of HDB even more? I am puzzled.

Here goes, in no order of merit and/or intelligence

‘The first misconception is that somehow there are five million people and that’s putting pressure on all of us. It doesn’t.’

- K. Shanmugam, Law Minister (at that time), trying to convince the peasants that importing more foreigners have absolutely no bearing on housing prices.
[Jan 09]Link

But if Mr Mah loses to the opposition, he warned that Singaporeans better sell their flats fast as they would no longer be of any value.

- MM Lee, warning the lesser mortals not to any how cast protest votes.
[Jan 09]Link

‘Citizens enjoy heavy subsidy in Class B2 and C wards. PRs receive significant subsidy while foreigners are not subsidised at all. The subsidy distinction reflects the privileges of citizenship, but there is scope for refinement.’

- Khaw Boon Wan, Health Minister on garmen’s reaction to citizen’s unhappiness that most of the policies are pro-foreigners rather than pro-citizens. Wonder how come they didn’t think of increasing subsidy for citizens.

[Jan 10] Link

‘You ask yourself: Is it fair? When you say Government, ultimately the people pay for it… We have thousands of private organisations which are profit-oriented and make money for their shareholders. It is impossible, and unacceptable, to require the taxpayer to pay for the security of all these profit-making companies, both in terms of the manpower required and the sheer cost’

- K. Shanmugam, Law Minister on why it’s not the garmen’s fault that angmoh bengs can so easily sneak into MRT depot to vandalize the MRT. Here’s someone who understands that tax-payers money should be put to better use, like funding pensions for ministers. Bravo!

[June 10] Link

‘It cannot be helped because with the market so tight, if we don’t allow the foreign workers in, you are going to have overheating.

But even with that, I would imagine there would be more than 100,000 extra foreign workers this year. I cannot see it otherwise. We have to accept that.’

- PM Lee, explaining why we die die still need to bring in more foreigners… despite measures in place to reduce their numbers (such as increasing foreign worker levy). Why? Coz foreigners = growth = GDP bonus for garmen.

[Jul 10] Link

‘I think the most important thing is for people to have an explanation and better understanding of what the situation is, as well as to know what plans PUB has in place to alleviate the situation’

Lui Tuck Yew, Acting Minister of Information, Communication and the Arts on the floods that hit several parts of the country in June / July period. What has MICA got to do with PUB you ask? Well, when the road outside your elite property also kena flood, you are damn well entitled to demand explanation, even though it is outside your functional role.

[Jul 10] Link

“Somethings are beyond (that); it’s an act of God unless you want to lose half the roads and have canals.”

- MM Lee, on how no amount of engineering could have prevented the floods in Orchard road and once again playing the 2 extremes cards (PAP or chaos, lose half the roads or have floods etc)

[Jul 10] Link

‘The CPF issue is a difficult one. I know how parents feel; they love their children very much and feel very responsible… If we allow the CPF to be used for overseas education, I know that a lot of parents will use that money.’

- Ng Eng Hen, Education Minister, on why CPF cannot be used to pay for overseas education… because a lot of parents will want to use…

[Aug 10] Link

‘The prudent thing to do is to leave the punting games and slot machines to foreign tourists. That is the only sure- win policy for us, because whether they win or lose, they will generate gambling taxes… which Singaporeans can share in.’

- PM Lee, promising me a share of the takings at the 2 IRs. When can I see the money sir?

[Aug 10] Link

‘It shows that I almost didn’t care. I had more important things to do, I had good feedback and good suggestions from so many people, and I focused on that.

I didn’t lose sleep about that.’

- Vivian Balakrishnan, Minister of YOG (MCYS). On how the flak directed at him on the web is affecting him.

‘I am not able to share any details at this stage other than to say that the investigators are not closing any option,’

- DPM Wong Kan Seng, updating parliament on the probe into Mas Selamat’s escape, just days before he is set to be taken over as Minister of Home Affairs

[Oct 10] Link

‘We’re pointing out to people that if we’re still healthy, it’s good to have more money to spend and if you can earn money by working, why not?’

Lim Boon Heng, Minister of Old People (PMO) telling us lesser mortals that it would be ‘good to have more money’ by working till we’re 68 years old, while he enjoys his pension. Thanks har minister!

[Nov 10] Link

Sir, investigations following Mas Selamat’s escape from WRDC identified a loose network of friends, relatives and ex-JI associates. This totalled a few hundred people including Mas Selamat’s own extended family which alone numbers more than a hundred. Investigations were conducted on all of them. Further actions were prioritised and pursued for those cases where there was a necessity based on intelligence.

For obvious operational security reasons I cannot talk about who were or who were not specifically subjected to surveillance, and what sort of surveillance was conducted.

- K Shanmugam, newly appointed Home Affairs Minister on why the most obvious place to look for Mas Selamat wasn’t well… looked. Personally, I think he damn suay, kena questioned how come he never do this, never thought of that etc, while the real culprit happily hands over duty and the turtle shell barely a month ago. (see previous quote by WKS)

[Nov 10] Link

Obviously, I have excluded all the juicy quotes from wikileaks because according to MFA, they ‘did not provide the full context and, in some cases, were from third party sources’.

Cheers and happy 2011!

The first, was on our Garmen’s plan to give out election sweetener help package for lower income Singaporeans…

Full report here

The second, was on our beloved power company announcing the impending electricity tariffs hike.

Full report here

If you think the timing of the these announcements are pure coincidence… I give you my post in 2008!

Read post here

What are the odds?

He escaped on Feb 27 2008.

Based on newspaper reports, we now learn that…

He basically run around in the wild for 2 days, got tired and decided to go to his bro’s house (probably coz he got tired of wiping his ass with leaves)

MAS Selamat Kastari, who managed to elude the massive island-wide manhunt for two days after his escape from the Whitley Road Detention Centre, sought shelter at his brother Asmom’s home in Tampines for a night on Feb 29, 2008, and headed across the Causeway.

For two days after his Feb 27 jailbreak, he hid at various public places, including forested areas, without being caught, before making his way to his brother’s flat to seek shelter and help from his grown-up niece, Nur Aini bte Asmom, who he thought was living alone.

How he managed to elude this massive island-wide manhunt is still not clear, perhaps he was just lucky, I’ll give him that.

Anyway…

According to report by MHA which can be found here, the house was more populated than what Mas Selamat had thought.

However, Asmom, his wife Aisah, their daughter Nur Aini and son Mahadir were all living in Asmom’s home. They have all independently admitted to the fact that Mas Selamat had stayed overnight in their home between 29 Feb and 1 Mar 2008. Asmom, Aisah and Nur Aini have also admitted that they had harboured Mas Selamat, providing him with shelter, food, money and clothes.

To me, the niece was the most helpful of all.

Nur Aini had let Mas Selamat into the flat. Her mother Aisah had reservations about allowing Mas Selamat into the flat… Nur Aini, however, persuaded her mother to allow Mas Selamat to enter the flat. She gave him use of her bedroom, provided him food and water, and also assisted him by destroying material evidence, namely the clothing he wore to the flat, which included his WRDC-issued attire.

Very helpful indeed, wonder if she got go to Adam road hawker center to ta-bao Mas Selamat’s favourite murtabak for him or not, while he’s there. Anyway… still got more

Next day, he did some cross-dressing with the help of his niece again.

AFTER staying overnight at his brother’s flat in Tampines on Feb 29, 2008… Mas Selamat Kastari disguised himself as a woman wearing a tudung to evade detection and recapture.

His niece Nur Aini bte Asmom helped apply make-up on the leader of the terrorist group Jemaah Islamiah, and secured the tudung for him, said Home Affairs Minister K. Shanmugam in Parliament on Monday.

She also gave him several items, which included a set of clothes, a baseball cap, water, a snack, an illumination stick, air-tight resealable plastic bags to pack the items, and a backpack to store all the items.

She also gave him a map of Singapore – which Mas Selamat had asked for – that showed part of Malaysia.

Some more got give him plastic bag to put his underwear, prepare nasi lemak for him to bring on the way to makan before his swim. So thoughtful of her.

The rest of the bro’s family all kept quiet.

‘Even after Mas Selamat left their flat on the evening of March 1, 2008, they did not reveal information concerning Mas Selamat to the authorities. On the contrary, they deliberately withheld the information when they were interviewed by the authorities on March 3, 2008. It was only in October 2010, after being confronted with the facts, that Asmom, Aisah, Nur Aini and Mahadir admitted to what had happened.’

Their action (or rather, inaction) really disappointed our Minister of Muslims

‘I am very disappointed with what has been revealed. Harbouring is very serious offence – more so when it involves a wanted fugitive who was a threat to the whole country – at a time when everyone was deeply concerned and actively looking out for him.

‘There can be no excuse or sufficient explanation that will help us get over the disappointment.

‘I am disappointed because we know that Singaporeans from all backgrounds have come together since 2002 – the Malay/Muslim community very prominently – to keep the lid on the danger of terrorism: reporting suspicious activity, counselling detainees, supporting their spouses and children, going out to the public to disabuse any notion that violence against the innocent is tolerated in Islam, and so on.

‘So there is tremendous disappointment. But we accept it and the good work at all levels must continue so we continue to build understanding and confidence, and enhance safety and security to emerge from this episode, stronger as a society.’

And also the deputy-Mufti-but-soon-to-be-Mufti, Fatris Bakaram.

‘As a religion that places great emphasis on peaceful living amongst different communities, Islam requires every individual in society to play his or her role in observing and achieving this objective.

For their troubles, the family kena jailed.

And counselling…

Naturally, what comes to a logical mind would be… how the hell was Mas Selamat able to go to his bro’s house while the entire nation was looking for him, without being seen by anyone?

You never place his relatives homes under surveillance meh? You didn’t think he will go and seek help from them meh?

It is heartening to see that some MPs / NMPs were rather ‘grass-root’ in their thinking and basically asked the same questions a man-in-the-street would.

Mr Hri Kumar Nair (Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC) asked if the home of Mas Selamat’s brother, Asmom, was under surveillance in the manhunt that followed the escape.

Nominated MP Viswa Sadasivan chimed in: ‘Given the fact that there can’t be that many immediate members of the family, on the day of the escape, shouldn’t it have been standard operating procedure for the security forces to actually go down to the homes of the immediate family members?’

Unfortunately, neither directed the question at the person who had to authority to order the surveillance at that time, our dear ex-minister of home affairs.

Instead it was left to the new guy to give this pathetic response.

Firstly, he try to justify that Mas Selamat got a big family.

Mr K. Shanmugam: Sir, investigations following Mas Selamat’s escape from WRDC identified a loose network of friends, relatives and ex-JI associates. This totalled a few hundred people including Mas Selamat’s own extended family which alone numbers more than a hundred. Investigations were conducted on all of them. Further actions were prioritised and pursued for those cases where there was a necessity based on intelligence.

Next he cited operational security as the reason to not give an direct answer to the 2 questions.

For obvious operational security reasons I cannot talk about who were or who were not specifically subjected to surveillance, and what sort of surveillance was conducted.

My response to that:

1. 100 family members = how many different household to put under surveillance?
2. How many people you need to monitor one household
3. Now that Mas Selamat is back in custody, what sort of operational security disadvantage would the MHA suffer by answering the query?

The fact that Mas Selamat was not apprehended when he turned up at his bro’s place already implied that either the place were not monitored at all, or was inaptly monitored. Both points to incompetence.

Ms. Ellen Lee then asked an irrelevant question on the thoroughness of the police’s questioning of Mas Selamat’s family members, forgetting that it really did not have to go to that if they (MHA) had set up surveillance properly at Asmon’s flat in the first place.

Ms Ellen Lee (Sembawang GRC) asked if police questioning of family members had been thorough enough, as the brother’s family appeared to have managed to keep their cool.

Shanmugam’s response:

As for Asmom, Asmom and Mas Selamat had not been in contact for many years. Asmom and his family never visited Mas Selamat when he was in detention prior to his escape. Nevertheless, ISD interviewed Asmom on March 3, a few days after Asmom had given refuge to Mas Selamat in his home. Asmom failed to inform the authorities of his contact with Mas Selamat at the interview. At that point in time, there was no evidence or intelligence to warrant any further action against him.

So not only were they incompetent in their surveillance, they also weren’t that successful in their fraud detection during interviews and their intelligence left much to be desired as well. If this doesn’t signal poor management and decision making at a higher level, what does?

Various security / terrorist experts weigh in with their opinions on how / why surveillance was inappropriate / difficult / unnecessary.

Giving their take on the revelations yesterday, security experts and political watchers said they did not think there had been a security lapse resulting in Mas Selamat managing to go undetected in Tampines.

Singapore Management University law lecturer Eugene Tan noted that Mas Selamat chose a counter-intuitive course of action. He said: “If I were him, I suppose the last thing I would do would be to call upon a family member and risk implicating them. What I would do is try and leave the country.”

As counter-intuitive as it may seemed… the potential benefit and likelihood of placing a few people on rotation to monitor immediate family far outweighs the costs. Besides, what does a law lecturer knows about intuition of a terrorist? So we will discount that.

Security consultant Susan Sim said it was not realistic to expect the authorities to watch all of the terrorist’s contacts simultaneously. She said: “There are several layers in a manhunt. You start with previous comrades. Then you widen to people he worked with and extended family.

“Unless you have unlimited resources, there are only so many people you can watch at a time. Mas Selamat had hundreds of contacts. He was a bus mechanic. Do you go after all his former colleagues? Do you engage in a witch hunt, or act on the basis of information? We all like to connect the dots, but usually the lines are visible only after the fact.”

Do you, like me, noticed a significant absence in the mention of immediate family in Susan Sim’s views? Yes, it was not possible to have everyone related under surveillance, but immediate family and comrades is not everyone.

Terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna, from the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), believed that in this case, former JI members would likely have been watched first.

“Traditionally, the JI had used its members for escape, not family members. So guided by past information, the authorities may have given priority to JI members, especially since Mas Selamat had not been in touch with this brother for years,” he said, adding that having more personnel might be the only solution.

Ok, I accept that, but is the MHA working with very tight resources? If so, tell the public. We deployed X number of people, to monitor Y number of higher priority targers. Rather than hide behind excuses like “obvious operational security” convince the public that surveillance was carried one, so much so that everyone had no time to pee, and there were so many higher priority targets that the immediate family like brother’s flat got no one to monitor.

Even then, Mas Selamat might be able to slip past surveillance, Dr Kumar Ramakrishna, another RSIS terrorism expert, said.

“These terrorists receive training in counter-surveillance. Mas Selamat was probably very good at it,” he said.

Ok, if that’s the case, then find out which team was in charged of the surveillance and take disciplinary action against them. Compare to the few scapegoats who got fired / demoted at WRDC, the team’s (assuming there was one) negligence and incompetence warrants the same punishment doesn’t it?

For private investigator and former policeman Lionel De Souza, an HDB flat was a difficult place to conduct surveillance.

“It depends on the flat, whether it’s an internal or external corridor and whether the flat is on a high floor.You need a minimum of three people to watch one target. There is no place to hide and conceal yourself while watching. You can sit at the void deck, but how long can you sit there? People will get suspicious,” he said.

De Souza may have been confused by his role. You’re trying to catch an escaped terrorist, not trying to photograph rich business man fooling around behind his wife’s back ok… why the worry about people getting suspicious?

Even if the surveillance team did get made and spooked Mas Selamat, and caused him to spend another 30 days in storm drains / forest / cemeteries, it is still better than let him go into his bro’s flat, get a good nite’s sleep and gather the aforementioned supplies (maps etc) and disguise right?

In a weak attempt to justified that MHA did not just sit around during the period, Shanmugam then revealed that the MHA investigated ‘a few hundred’ of Mas Selamat’s family, friends and ex-JI associates.

The ex-policeman-now-PI Lionel De Souza also wrote a letter to the ST forum asking everyone to ‘move on’, which every Singaporean knows, is an euphemism for ‘don’t talk about it and malu our govt further’.

What’s interesting is, in his letter, he wrote:

It would have been natural for Mas Selamat to have sought sanctuary in his brother’s flat.

As a police officer who has since retired, I am of the view that it is not uncommon for high-profile criminals to seek refuge in the homes of their close relatives before picking a right time to flee to a safer haven.

Since it is not uncommon, then how come he wasn’t apprehended when he showed up at his bro’s place? Oh, have we already asked this question?

Another reader, Samuel Owen too, wrote to the papers asking yet again for ‘accountability’ (in other words, someone to be fired) I support him.

Now that the people who helped Mas Selamat escape have been dealt with, is the Government considering acting against those in charge of the security operation?

Detaining a terrorist effectively and making the expected checks in the event of an escape should be matters that are well within government control, especially when the issue is of prime concern to Singaporeans. We cannot move on until we deal with the failure to find Mas Selamat at one of the most likely places to look. There needs to be some semblance of accountability in this sad episode.

There’s the phrase again… “move on”.

How can we “move on” if the parliament statements left even more questions unanswered?

Oh well, I suppose since our new Minister of Home Affairs is “satisfied that all the necessary steps were taken”, we lesser mortals can’t say much in disagreement either.

Some excerpts…

HOME buyers from the Americas and Europe leapt back into the Singapore property market in the first nine months of this year, with purchases surging more than 70 per cent from a year earlier.

‘Some may prefer to buy a private home rather than lease as current interest rates are low. Some may also be buying in anticipation of further strengthening of the Singdollar,’

Almost half of these Western buyers have also purchased homes in the $1.5 million to $5 million range.

Singaporean purchasers fell to 66 per cent last month, or 947 purchases out of 1,446 in total, the lowest monthly proportion since 2007. Foreign purchasers – including permanent residents – however, have gradually risen from 22 per cent in August to 30 per cent last month, making up 436 out of 1,446 purchases.

ST was very helpful in providing this breakdown by URA.

Districts 9, 10, 11 and 15 are arguably the most sought after areas in our country, and looked at the people who are buying properties there? One quarter of them are not from our country.

Why’s that? Well… because 85% of Singaporeans stay in HDB flat, 85% of us will never see $1.5mil let alone $5mil in our lift time.

Since young, we were brought up with idea that our nation is land-scarce with no natural resources and that our people are our most precious resource.

Yet, somehow, in this tiny LAND-SCARCE nation, our govt allowed developers to build housing in the most sought after regions of our nation, and then sell these properties to foreigners. People who are here on short term work assignment, people who push up the property prices because they buy properties in popular areas with the intention to profit from the strengthening singdollar.

Isn’t this the kind of speculation our govt is trying to curb? Who gets hurt in the process? Right.. our most precious resource.

Boys and girls, election is coming… it’s time to find your balls and do what’s right. If you continued to be bullied, people will continue to take advantage of you.